Catatan Akhir Tahun

Banyak hal terjadi 3 bulan belakangan ini dan patut menjadi catatan akhir tahun.

Oktober:
Awal yang baik, diikuti dengan fluktuasi, pengenalan technical dan fundamental analysis, banyak indikator, software, serta berbagai artikel dan buku pendukung.

November:
Kemenangan Trump, fluktuasi akibat sentimen pasar, dan jangan lupakan MSCI. Pertimbangkan ini waktunya menjual apapun yang kau miliki untuk memegang sejumlah modal belanja nanti.

Desember:
Window dressing hanya terjadi di hari perdagangan terakhir, yaitu 30 Desember 2016. Kata kunci: window dressing, blue chip, index mover. Hari-hari sebelumnya masih cuci gudang lanjutan bulan November. Merupakan saat yang tepat bila sabar menanti diskon akhir tahun.

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Insiders, Market-makers, Specialists, etc

To understand the specialists’ practices, the investor must learn to think of specialists as merchants who want to sell an inventory of stock at retail price levels. When they clear their shelves of their inventory they will seek to employ their profits to buy more merchandise at wholesale price levels. Once we grasp this concept we are ready to posit eight laws:

1. As merchants, specialists will expect to sell at retail what they have bought at wholesale.
2. The longer the specialists remain in business, the more money they will accumulate to buy stock at wholesale, which they will then want to sell at retail.
3. The expansion of communications media will bring more people into the market, tending to increase volatility of stock prices as they increase elements of demand-supply.
4. In order to buy and sell huge quantities of stock, Exchange members will seek new ways to enhance their sales techniques through use of the mass media.
5. In order to employ ever increasing financial resources, specialists will have to effect price declines of ever increasing dimensions in order to shake out enough stock.
6. Advances will have to be more dramatic on the upside to attract public interest in order to distribute the ever increasing accumulated inventories.
7. The most active stocks will require longer periods of time for their distribution.
8. The economy will be subjected to increasingly dramatic breakdowns causing inflation, unemployment, high interest rates and shortages of rawmaterials.

Richard Ney – The Wall Street Gang.

Tentang Memanfaatkan Kesempatan

It is important to understand that the market-makers do not control the market. They are responding to market conditions and taking advantage of opportunities presented to them. Where there is a window of opportunity provided by market conditions – panic selling or thin trading – they may see the potential to increase profits through price manipulation, but they can only do so if the market allows them to. You must not therefore assume that market-makers control the markets. No individual trader or organisation can control any but the most thinly traded of markets for any substantial period of time.

Tom Williams – Mastering The Markets.

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Contohnya panic selling seperti kondisi IHSG sekarang ini, ada banyak kesempatan jika cukup jeli.

Prinsip Analisis Candlestick dalam VPA

Principle #1
The length of any wick, either to the top or bottom of the candle is ALWAYS the first point of focus because it instantly reveals, impending strength, weakness, and indecision, and more importantly, the extent of any associated market sentiment.

Principle #2
If no wick is created, then this signals strong market sentiment in the direction of the closing price.

Principle #3
A narrow body indicates weak market sentiment. A wide body represents strong market sentiment.

Principle #4
A candle of the same type will have a completely different meaning depending on where it appears in a price trend. Always reference the candle to the location within the broader trend, or in the consolidation phase.

Principle #5
Volume validates price. Start with the candle, then look for validation or anomalies of the price action by the volume bar.

Anna Coulling – A Complete Guide to Voice Price Analysis.